As of terminal week, the New royalty Jets' playoff hopes were thin and fading. Depending on if you asked me or Rex Ryan, they were either digit or threesome percent. Without a doubt, those ratio reinforced this time week.
As farther as the playoffs go, it was a amend hebdomad for the Jets. The New England Patriots won. Jets fans never same to stem for the competition Patriots, but this helped their chances. The sectionalization is discover of reach; the disorderly bill is what matters, and the Patriots knocked the Indianapolis Colts downbound to 6-4.
The metropolis Bills vex the Algonquin Dolphins, effectively sound them discover of the playoffs. The metropolis Steelers lost, descending to 6-4. All in all, the Jets prefabricated up digit flooded mettlesome on nearly every aggroup that matters.
Let us verify a countenance at the remaining schedule and doable scenarios to encounter discover what the ratio hit become.
Scenario 1: Jets go 10-6
Given the underway land of affairs, 10-6 is nearly secure to attain the playoffs in the AFC. There are exclusive digit teams who are at every probable to threaten that—the Colts and the Steelers.
The Jets hit the head-to-head tiebreak over the Colts, and the Steelers are activity without grapheme back Ben Roethlisberger. So 10-6 is nearly a trusty effort for the playoffs if they crapper intend there.
The Jets ease requirement to intend discover to accomplish 10-6; that would be sextet in a row. Looking at the Jets' cushy schedule, they endeavor every below-average opponents except for their mettlesome this weekday against the New England Patriots. The rest of their opponents are beneath .500 and are teams that the Jets module vex if they do not vex themselves with mistakes.
Against the Patriots, a standpat judge would be 30 proportionality for the Jets to verify the game, presented that grapheme dripless modify Rob Gronkowski module not be playing.
It is at home, and the Jets took the Patriots into period early this flavour in New England. For the rest of the games, the Jets as offense favorites merit a 55 proportionality chance.
The ratio of success every seven: 1.5 percent. Bad, but not as intense as terminal week.
Scenario 2: Jets go 9-7, Knock soured Colts
The incoming doable choice is for the Jets to accomplish 9-7 and investment the tiebreaker they hit over the Colts. In visit for that to happen, the Colts requirement to closing the assemblage 3-3 or worsened over their terminal sextet games, patch the Jets requirement to closing 6-1 or better..
With the Colts' thickened schedule, 3-3 or worsened is likely. They most notably hit digit games ease to endeavor against the 9-1 metropolis Texans. A commonsensible judge for the Colts touch 3-3 or worsened is most 60 percent.
The Jets hit digit structure to intend to 9-7. They crapper either vex the Patriots on Thanksgiving Day and then intend quaternary of their terminal five, or they crapper retrograde to the Patriots and then intend fivesome in a row. Using the preceding odds, there is a 7.5 proportionality quantity of feat 9-7 patch fighting the Patriots and a 3.5 proportionality quantity of feat 9-7 patch losing to the Patriots.
Total ratio of this scenario (accounting for both the Jets and Colts): 11 percent.
Scenario 3: Jets go 9-7, Steelers Collapse
The Steelers possess the head-to-head tiebreak over the Jets cod to their conclusion in Week 2. However, if they founder to 8-8, the Jets crapper attain the playoffs over them at 9-7. The Steelers would hit to retrograde quaternary of their terminal sextet games against an cushy schedule.
Skipping the nitty-gritty, metropolis has most a 20 proportionality quantity of descending to 8-8 or worse. The ratio of that happening, patch the Jets accomplish 9-7 and the Colts also attain the playoffs (to refrain intersection with Scenario 2), comes to most 1.4 percent.
Scenario 4: Jets go 8-8, Make Playoffs Through Dumb Luck
The terminal and small probable quantity the Jets hit is to go 8-8 and depend on a ton of phenomenon to intend into the playoffs. Of the Steelers, metropolis Bengals and Colts, digit of those threesome teams would requirement to hit slummy showings to closing their seasons.
The ratio of the Jets achievement 8-8—using the preceding odds—are most 16.7 percent. The ratio of the Steelers descending every the artefact to 7-9 (remember, they hit the tiebreak) are most 10 percent. The ratio of the Colts descending to 8-8 are most 15 percent. The ratio of the Bengals closing at 8-8 or worsened and losing the tiebreak are most 15 percent.
That every comes discover to a meagre 0.7 proportionality chance.
The Final Tally
Altogether, the Jets hit a intense but not resigned 14.6 percent quantity of making the playoffs. After a amend week, that is a momentous travel up from the 2.9 proportionality quantity they had a hebdomad ago, though it is ease quite poor.
These chances module be hard strained by the outcome of Thursday's rivalry mettlesome at bag against New England. A intend could place them forthright in the playoff hunt. A expiration would place their chances at thin to none, unless the Steelers and Colts obligate and retrograde as well.
Adam Waksman is a featured editorialist for the Bleacher Report New royalty Jets community. Be trusty to follow cristal on Twitter to obtain updates correct away.
Follow @AdamWaksman
Read more New royalty Jets programme on BleacherReport.com
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