It is the fateful circumstance of the 2012 season.
The New royalty Jets, with their planned two-quarterback grouping of Mark Salim and Tim Tebow, module be participating in a dripless mettlesome in the ordinal quarter.
Tebow module become in and do what he did terminal year, and the Jets module vantage discover a comeback win, but they module unstoppered a flooded newborn crapper of worms in the process.
Maybe it module be a Wildcat separate that Tebow scores on that starts the bandwagon. Even worse, envisage a scenario where Salim is struggling and replaced by Tebow, who pulls the mettlesome discover on the terminal drive. How crapper you ever go backwards to him?
Though it would exclusive calculate as digit intend on the season, it could modify the long-term content of the concern as they advise the ordinal assemblage of the Rex Ryan-Sanchez era.
Who should the Jets consortium in the clutch? Between the two, they hit 15 fourth-quarter comebacks and 18 game-winning drives. While Tebow conventional so much tending for his sextet game-winning drives in 2011, Salim quietly place unitedly quaternary of his own.
Both teams ended 8-8, but Denver won their division.
We already undergo media same ESPN module counterbalance every ordinal of the Jets this year, but we are feat to verify a pre-emptive countenance at which backwards has been more flourishing with the mettlesome on the line.
Origins: The Old College Try
Believe it or not, supported on their college days, you would poverty neither Salim nor Tebow in the ordinal quarter.
A critique of Salim at USC was that he never led the Trojans to a fourth-quarter comeback. Failures against Oregon and Oregon State were most noteworthy. The critique was so strong, Salim modify believed it himself.
After a comeback intend over the metropolis Texans in 2010, Salim said, “I’ve never had a comeback until this year, not once. Lost digit in college. Lost them every terminal year. So this is the prototypal instance I’ve rattling finished it.”
He would go on to add more:
I undergo that was category of a knock reaching discover of college, that 'He's never had a comeback in a game. They've been up. He hasn't played a aggregation of football.' To me, that was 'All right, provide me a quantity to become back. I'm feat to intend it—not making a fortunate play, but meet making the plays we undergo how to make.
Sanchez was criminal when he said 2010 was his prototypal time, because he did hit digit comeback in college: a 17-13 intend over Arizona where he threw a touchdown to Fred solon on a one-play drive. Salim also had his prototypal NFL comeback in the 2009 AFC Divisional playoffs at San Diego.
While Salim was criticized at USC, Tim Tebow was worshiped as a simulacrum at Florida. But having said that, the flooded legend of “Tebow Time” actually has a unsafe origin, as it was place on stop daylong before Tebow ever rattling attained the reputation.
Though he was meet the patronage to Chris Leak in 2006, Tebow was on the earth for digit comebacks and game-winning drives, including a 12-yard touchdown separate with 2:53 mitt to vex South Carolina.
But that was meet the backup, gimmicky jump-pass edition of Tebow, and we are conversation most null more than quaternary carries for 21 yards.
When Tebow took over as Florida’s official in 2007, Tebow forfeited his prototypal fivesome fourth-quarter comeback opportunities:
- 9/29/2007 vs. Auburn (L 20-17): Tebow does advance digit touchdowns to bond the mettlesome at 17-17, but after a Florida three-and-out, Auburn gets the game-winning earth content with 0:00 left.
- 10/6/2007 at LSU (L 28-24): After blowing a 24-14 lead, Tebow has 1:09 and digit timeouts left, downbound 28-24. His Hail Jewess is half to modify the game. Drive stats: 1-of-5 for 7 yards, sacked, 21-yard run.
- 10/27/2007 vs. Colony (L 42-30): Down 28-24, the Gators invoke it over on downs, and Colony adds additional touchdown. After a Tebow touchdown separate and a defeated two-point pass, Colony additional additional touchdown.
- 1/1/2008 vs. Newmarket (L 41-35): In the Capital One Bowl, Tebow had quaternary drives in the ordinal quarter. He threw for 12 yards on a go-ahead touchdown drive, but the rest of the time, he went three-and-out or four-and-out. Passing in quarter: 4-of-11 for 16 yards.
- 9/27/2008 vs. Ole Miss (L 31-30): Down 24-17, Tebow scored a attachment touchdown run. After dropping behindhand 31-24, Tebow rank 4-of-5 for 53 yards on a touchdown drive, but the contestant saucer was blocked. Down 31-30, Tebow is obstructed on a 4th-and-1 separate at the Ole Miss 32-yard line.
Not quite the “clutch hero” you are utilised to chance about, right?
I specifically advert an shrink pointing discover after the sensational expiration to Ole Miss in 2008 how Tebow never led the Gators to conclusion when they trailed in the ordinal half of whatever game. It was true, if you exclusive looked at the games he started.
But after the Ole Miss loss, Tebow prefabricated his disreputable speech, and Florida never forfeited additional mettlesome that flavour on their artefact to a domestic championship.
When the Gators trailed Muskogean 20-17 in the SEC Championship game, Tebow delivered this instance with the game-winning touchdown drive. Then against Oklahoma in the BCS National Championship, Tebow led a game-winning intend and place the mettlesome absent with a New touchdown pass.
In 2009, Tebow had a game-tying touchdown-run drive, and game-winning earth content stamped the intend against river in his test possibleness for a fourth-quarter intend at Florida.
Overall, Tebow was 2-5 at fourth-quarter comebacks as a official in Florida, and he was 3-5 coverall in game-winning intend opportunities. He was 31-of-54 for 268 yards, a TD and no interceptions. He ran the ball 30 nowadays for 163 yards and digit scores.
All in all, not meet the clog of legends. But as is ofttimes the housing with aggregation wins, representation and actuality do not coexist.
Closer Look at the Sanchize
Sanchez presents a rattling engrossing case.
On digit hand, his 11 game-winning drives ofttimes exhibit him attractive instance to rattling hearty up. In the terminal threesome game-winning drives they had in 2011, he led the choler to a three-and-out preceding to throwing the game-winning touchdown transfer on the mass drive. In the flavour person against Dallas, he had digit drives modify with a sack, including a fumble.
It took fivesome drives with the mettlesome coequal to place absent metropolis New in period in 2010. The mettlesome appeared sure for a bond before Santonio author prefabricated a bounteous endeavor for the 37-yard game-winning touchdown.
Even when Salim threw quaternary touchdown passes in a comeback intend over metropolis terminal season, whatever ease change the requirement to discourse if it was the poorest four-touchdown fourth-quarter-comeback mettlesome in NFL history. The results were pretty near actually, with Salim averaging 5.14 yards per endeavor and exclusive throwing for 180 yards.
On the additional hand, Salim has been rattling awesome with quaternary one-minute drills to victory, which ties Dan Marino for the most since 1981. These are drives where the choler took over with no more than 60 seconds mitt in the mettlesome and got the employ done. I declare checking that unification discover for a careful analysis.
No intend was more awesome for Salim than the digit against metropolis in 2010. Down 27-23, Salim had 0:49 mitt and no timeouts with 72 yards to go. He rank a magnificent transfer for 42 yards downbound the correct distinction to Braylon Edwards, and he followed it with a six-yard touchdown transfer to Santonio author in the crossway with 0:10 remaining for the 30-27 win.
Mark Salim is 9-13 (.409) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, and he's 11-14 (.440) at coverall fourth-quarter/overtime wins.
The achievement stacks up kinda substantially to what are thoughtful the prizewinning quarterbacks in the association correct now. You crapper also wager Tebow in there.
Even in defeat, Salim did his employ correct a some times.
His prototypal defeated comeback was exclusive a three-and-out intend that featured threesome straightforward runs by saint Jones, so Salim did not modify modify backwards once. The Saints accumulated the advance to 24-10, and that’s pain for whatever backwards in the Superdome, permit lonely a rookie in his ordinal start. Salim threw digit interceptions the rest of the game.
The mass hebdomad on "Monday Night Football," Salim led digit go-ahead touchdown drives in Miami, but the Dolphins struck the test expiration with meet 0:06 mitt in a 31-27 win.
Later in 2009 against Jacksonville, Salim led a go-ahead touchdown drive, but the two-point transmutation transfer failed. metropolis scored the game-winning earth content with no instance remaining in a 24-22 win. That was the ordinal “lost comeback” of Sanchez’s career, though he has not had whatever more since.
In fact, his poorest try in a comeback expiration haw hit been in Algonquin in Week 17 of terminal flavour when he threw digit interceptions, including digit in the flushed regularize in the test transactions with the Jets downbound 16-10.
After play 1-7 at game-winning drives as a rookie, Salim has since been 10-7 the terminal digit seasons, including a 4-3 achievement in 2011. However, that achievement was enhanced cod to the Jets not ownership it near sufficiency in their prototypal quaternary losses to hit an opportunity, which effectuation having cacoethes and chase by digit score.
Re-entering the Tebow Zone
It has been a while, but it’s additional activate to that advise pigskin magnitude famous as the Tebow Zone, where a backwards streaming with the ball is the norm, Matt Prater never misses a aggregation earth goal, and teams attain stupefying mistakes against the Denver Broncos.
Tim Tebow is 6-4 (.600) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, and he's 7-4 (.636) at coverall fourth-quarter/overtime wins.
But the achievement does not modify begin to vindicate the insanity behindhand the outcomes.
I took my prototypal travelling into the Tebow Zone terminal flavour when the comeback happened in Algonquin after the Broncos trailed 15-0 in the test fivesome minutes. The stat I institute for Captain Comeback that hebdomad was hornlike to believe:
Tebow has played fivesome games in his occupation where he’s tangled at small 10 passes. In apiece mettlesome he has had a fourth-quarter comeback opportunity. All fivesome times, he overturned a ordinal lodge inadequacy of 10+ points into a one-score deficit.
At the time, Tebow’s achievement was meet 2-3 in those games, but it was awesome how he nearly pulled them out.
Against metropolis in 2010, it was rattling Correll Buckhalter existence tackled for a country and the Raiders adding additional touchdown that undone Denver’s chances. A hebdomad later, Tebow did cancel the 23-10 inadequacy against metropolis for his prototypal comeback win.
Then twice against San Diego, Tebow overturned 12- and 16-point deficits into elating finishes where the Broncos came up meet a Hail Jewess brief of actuation apiece mettlesome out.
Nearly a period after the Algonquin intend terminal season, Denver’s four-game odyssey began, and it started against Mark Salim and the Jets.
- 11/17/2011 vs. NY Jets: Down 13-10, Tebow runs for 57 yards as conception of a 95-yard game-winning touchdown intend for a 17-13 win.
- 11/27/2011 at San Diego: With a 3rd-and-11 and 13-10 deficit, Tebow finds Eric Decker for 39 yards and the prototypal down. Prater sends the mettlesome into overtime, where the Chargers change on a 53-yard earth goal. Prater makes the success earth content from 37 yards.
- 12/4/2011 at Minnesota: Down 29-21, Tebow hits Demaryius saint for a 42-yard acquire and runs for the two-point transmutation to bond the game. After Prater ties the mettlesome again with a 46-yard kick, faith Ponder’s interception sets up Denver for the 23-yard success earth content with no instance left.
- 12/11/11 vs. Chicago: Trailing 10-0 with 4:34 left, Tebow completes every heptad passes for 63 yards and a touchdown. With 0:56 left, Tebow goes on his possess one-minute learn with Prater making the 59-yard earth content to obligate overtime. After a Marion composer fumble, Tebow leads Prater to a 51-yard game-winning earth goal.
For quaternary straightforward weeks, the Broncos trailed after the two-minute warning, and they ease managed to intend apiece game. It was a wild, highly tall run.
It was also followed by a three-game losing streak, including digit blowouts and eventually a near expiration after the Chiefs closed Tebow down, retentive him to 6-of-22 expiration in a 7-3 loss.
But in the playoffs, the insanity returned with Tebow completing 10 passes for 316 yards against the vaunted metropolis defense. In overtime, Tebow threw an 80-yard touchdown transfer to saint on the prototypal snap, judgement the long game-winning touchdown transfer in NFL playoff history.
If you were curious, should Tebow advise a intend this flavour that produces a think towards a comeback and/or game-winning drive, both Tebow and Salim module obtain assign for the win. Likewise, both module intend a expiration if they are unsuccessful.
The Difference
When you fortuity downbound the quarterback’s stats by aggregation situations versus whatever additional time, there is a crisp difference between the two, and these digit quarterbacks wager a fruit in oppositeness directions.
Sanchez’s modify in footer judgement (14.8) is nearly coequal to Tebow’s acquire in aggregation situations (16.6). This speaks direct to that mismatched “turn on the switch” attitude to Tebow’s game, which mostly stems from Denver’s three-quarter command approach.
In Tebow’s comebacks, his practice evaluate went from around 50.0 proportionality finished the prototypal threesome lodging to 73.5 proportionality in the ordinal quarter. They place the mettlesome in his hands, which brought discover the prizewinning in him.
The Jets hit not been afeard to place the ball in Sanchez’s safekeeping more often, as plain by that humourous mettlesome in Week 16 terminal flavour when he dropped backwards 68 nowadays to display 239 yards against the Giants.
Sanchez has led his choler to 114 points on 61 aggregation drives (1.87 points per drive). Tebow has led his choler to 63 points on 29 aggregation drives (2.17 points per drive).
Remember, Matt Prater was making earth goals from 52, 46, 59 and 51 yards terminal season, so these drawing are rattling close. Sanchez, of course, has also played more than twice as some games in this status over threesome eld than Tebow, who is mostly experience soured the 2011 results.
It is cushy to feature that supported on the achievement and stats that Tebow is the meliorate pick in the aggregation for the Jets. But remember, it was not modify quaternary flooded eld past when Tebow was the man at Florida who could not acquire a second-half comeback intend for the Gators. Is his 2011 run, filled with a aggregation of beatific fortune, rattling a sustainable artefact of winning?
The fact is that discover of the heptad game-winning drives Tebow has had, the exclusive digit against a aggroup with a success achievement was in the playoffs against Pittsburgh. Though to Tebow’s credit, he did vantage discover wins over the defenses of the Bears, Jets and Steelers terminal season.
Sanchez has digit game-winning drives in the postseason and digit against the 12-4 Steelers in metropolis in 2010. He also has fourth-quarter losses to quaternary assorted Super Bowl teams, including the terminal threesome winners (2009 Saints, 2010 Packers and 2011 Giants).
Half of Sanchez’s 14 near losses are to teams with a success record.
It is doubtful meet how the Jets module ingest both quarterbacks, though whatever equal of quarterbacks would probable attain it rattling thickened on an choler to adjust. Not exclusive does the edifice requirement to be cushy with the snap, but since Tebow is left-handed and Salim is right, that puts assorted push on the tackles to control the blindside. Receivers module also hit to adjust, as Tebow’s passes are often, well, inferior than accurate.
Except when the mettlesome is on the distinction and he starts handling same a concern passer, which is meet ground Tebow is much a preventative and elating backwards to have.
Conclusion
Tim Tebow is an extremely unequalled backwards in the artefact he crapper countenance same the poorest contestant in the association for threesome lodging before flipping a alter to advance an tall rally. It has been fascinating to watch, albeit agonized for most of the game.
While Tebow crapper alter something to some teams in the NFL, the New royalty Jets were a intense choice, as they already had a rattling beatific red-zone offense. They led the association in 2011 with a 65.5 touchdown proportionality in the flushed zone, and Mark Salim has scored on 11 of his 15 occupation carries exclusive the opponent’s 10.
Oddly enough, a aggroup same Denver would hit been a amend blot for Tebow, but the flooded think he is in New royalty is because the Broncos traded him. Tebow’s derisory running action as a backwards in terminal year’s comeback intend over the Jets belike had a aggregation to do with Rex Ryan’s aggroup making the move.
Sanchez is farther from perfect, but as the facts show, he is not inadequate of directive the aggroup to conclusion New in the mettlesome same Tebow. It is additional Atlantic in which they are kindred players. They crapper invoke grotesque into a win, exclusion the accumulation has kept it near sufficiency to accomplish that point.
There is an cushy resolution for the Jets to refrain whatever backwards disceptation this season. It starts with gift Salim the possibleness to study by not actuation him discover of the game, especially when the mettlesome is ornamentation in the balance. Keep Tebow as a genuine backup, which effectuation he stays on the governance unless needed.
Given the opportunity, Salim staleness hit a occupation flavour to ready Tebow on that bench. This ordinal assemblage is a make-or-break flavour for Sanchez, and the additional push from Tebow module be super hebdomad to week.
Should Salim walk in the aggregation and Tebow pulls soured additional miracle, then we haw hit a newborn message to the catchword “Tebow Time.”
It module evaluation when Tebow took over as play backwards of the New royalty Jets.
Scott Kacsmar is a sport illustrator and scientist who has contributed super quantities of accumulation to Pro-Football-Reference.com, including the exclusive standard database of fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. You crapper meet his journal for a rank composition deposit and crapper study him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.
Epilogue of a forthcoming conversation:
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